Mesoscale Discussion 0782
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0323 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern Wyoming...far southwest South Dakota...and
   far northwest Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 022023Z - 022230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is possible in the next 1-3 hours
   across central Wyoming. Any storms that do develop will pose an
   isolated wind and hail threat. A severe thunderstorm watch is
   possible if warranted by storm coverage.

   DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite trends have shown gradual
   vertical development of cumulus developing off of the higher terrain
   of western WY. A few lightning strikes have been noted in the past
   hour that suggest that attempts at convective initiation have been
   made, but radar imagery from KRIW shows no sustained convection.
   Despite sufficient MUCAPE, convective initiation failure so far is
   likely attributed to lingering mixed-layer inhibition. These trends
   suggest that sustained convection should hold off for at least
   another hour. 

   Sustained convection will become more likely heading towards 00 UTC
   due to the approach of a trailing trough axis associated with a
   passing upper-level shortwave across Canada. Although confidence
   remains somewhat low on the coverage of storms, any storm that can
   move into eastern WY will move into a more favorable environment
   with 40-50 knots of effective bulk shear and increasing instability
   with eastward extent. This will support an isolated hail and wind
   threat with any storm that can make it into the eastern environment.
   A severe thunderstorm watch is possible later this evening if the
   coverage of convection is sufficient.

   ..Moore/Grams.. 06/02/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

   LAT...LON   42970780 43130851 43480887 43910881 44220846 44370819
               44580581 44320422 43620357 42840335 42130378 42000515
               42540601 42970780