Mesoscale Discussion 0783
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0352 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

   Areas affected...Central/Southern MN...Far West-Central WI...Far
   Southeast SD...Northern IA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 022052Z - 022245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to gradually increase
   over the next few hours with the potential for hail and damaging
   wind gusts. Severe thunderstorm watch is likely, especially along
   MN/IA border vicinity into west-central WI.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms continues to move across
   central MN. Recent radar imagery has shown increased
   southward/southeastward motion with this eastern part of this
   cluster as well as a surface-wind direction change as the leading
   edge moved through. The cluster has struggled to organize thus far
   but there is still enough vertical shear for occasional updraft
   rotation robust enough for hail. 

   Air mass downstream continues to destabilize with temperatures
   across southern MN in the 90s and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s.
   Slightly cooler temperatures and dewpoints exist farther northeast
   into west-central WI and farther southwest in far southeast SD.
   Convective inhibition remains in place across all of these areas,
   but is gradually eroding. Agitated cumulus continues to develop
   along the wind-shift boundary, with convective initiation eventually
   expected to occur over the next hour or two. Steep lapse rates and
   resulting strong instability should result in robust storm
   development once convective initiation occurs. Initial development
   will pose a risk for severe hail with a trend towards damaging wind
   gusts as the storms become outflow-dominant.  Potential exists for
   upscale growth, with the resulting system then tracking
   southeastward.

   ..Mosier/Grams.. 06/02/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   43419767 44949492 45359101 43369063 43079456 42799687
               43419767