Mesoscale Discussion 0784
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0458 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

   Areas affected...northeast CO...central NE...and portions of
   southern SD

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 022158Z - 022330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Recent visible satellite imagery shows updrafts deepening
   near a frontal zone across portions of Nebraska and Colorado.
   Moderate destabilization may support a few storms capable of severe
   hail and damaging winds through this afternoon and into the evening.
   Trends will be monitored, but storm coverage and intensity are not
   expected to be great enough to justify a watch at this time.

   DISCUSSION...A few deep updrafts have been noted between a quasi
   stationary front and a surface trough. Dewpoints in the upper 50s to
   low 60s F along and behind the front are contributing to moderate
   destabilization, with 2000-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Shear is forecast to
   remain relatively weak, at or about 25 kt, and mostly on the cooler
   side of the boundary. This suggests a few multicell storms capable
   of severe hail and strong downdraft winds may develop this
   afternoon/evening. Hi-res guidance suggests some clustering of
   stronger cells near the front this evening, but the lack of
   appreciable deep layer shear suggests that the threat and coverage
   of any severe weather may be relatively brief. A weather watch is
   not anticipated.

   ..Lyons/Thompson.. 06/02/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39720237 40010245 40390251 40680256 41100256 41280254
               41540242 41790220 42100160 42500076 42799989 42899959
               42879882 42719809 42389754 41909774 41449836 40999903
               40429990 39800118 39500189 39600234 39720237