Mesoscale Discussion 0786
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0735 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

   Areas affected...eastern WY...northeast CO...and southwest SD

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 030035Z - 030200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms forming along a stationary front may continue to
   pose a risk for severe hail and wind across portions of eastern
   Wyoming and northeast Colorado this evening. Uncertainty in the
   coverage and severity of storms suggests a watch is not needed.

   DISCUSSION...A recent uptick in convective intensity has been noted
   with storms across eastern Wyoming and northeastern Colorado. 00z
   surface analysis shows a stationary front draped across southeastern
   Wyoming and northern Colorado. Low-level upslope flow is occurring
   on the cool side of the boundary where dewpoints in the low to mid
   50s F are supporting MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg. 30-45 kt of effective
   shear may support some storm organization in the form of multicell
   clusters and or a supercell this evening. Large hail will be the
   primary threat given steep mid-level lapse rates of 7.5-8.5 C/km.

   Some additional storm development is possible across the northern
   portions of the MD area near CPR to DGW. Visible satellite shows
   some cumulus towers deepening along the northern Laramie range.
   Hi-res guidance does support this scenario, with some SPC HREF
   members developing additional storms in the next hour or two. Should
   this occur, the primary threat will again be severe hail with the
   stronger storms. Given the uncertainty in storm coverage and limited
   longevity of the threat with the loss of daytime heating, a watch
   appears unlikely. However, trends will be monitored.

   ..Lyons/Thompson.. 06/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...RIW...

   LAT...LON   44130386 43960343 43330306 42650296 41920296 41220291
               40700295 40290310 40220374 40370406 40690443 40990458
               41500481 41910491 42220498 42650529 42740563 42970624
               43470649 43930627 44240582 44160486 44130386