Mesoscale Discussion 0787
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0826 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

   Areas affected...western New York into northern Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 030126Z - 030400Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be
   possible this evening as they develop out of southwest Ontario.
   Large hail appears to be the primary concern.

   DISCUSSION...A low-amplitude upper trough is currently interacting
   with an unstable air mass over southwest Ontario, also in a zone of
   low-level warm advection with 30-40 kt westerly 850 mb flow. The 00Z
   DTX sounding shows over 2300 J/kg MLCAPE, and veering/increasing
   winds with height favoring supercell potential.

   As the upper wave continues southeast across the area, hodographs
   will lengthen further, and there may be an uptick in instability due
   to the warm advection. Increasing storm coverage is possible, and a
   few could be severe producing large hail or isolated wind gusts.
   However, loss of heating will gradually stabilize the surface layer,
   and MLCIN will increase with time. Therefore, a brief window may
   exist for surface-based convection with better supercell potential,
   with a trend toward partially elevated storms.

   ..Jewell/Thompson.. 06/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   43947882 43657819 42957741 42387703 41707722 41577886
               41747968 42388026 42978054 43378025 43837928 43947882