Mesoscale Discussion 0790
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0412 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of western NY...northwestern PA...and far
   northeastern OH

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 030912Z - 031115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms crossing Lake Erie may pose an isolated hail/wind
   risk for the next couple of hours. Still, watch issuance appears
   unlikely at this time.

   DISCUSSION...A compact mid-level jet over Lower MI early this
   morning has likely been convectively enhanced by prior storms, with
   recent VWPs from KDTX showing 50-60+ kt of westerly flow roughly in
   the 2-6 km layer. Once storms moving quickly eastward over Lake Erie
   and southern Ontario reach western NY and northwestern PA, they may
   encounter a marginally supportive thermodynamic environment. 09Z
   surface observations generally indicate temperatures remain in the
   mid 60s to low 70s, with dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s.
   Another storm is developing over northeastern OH along the lake
   shore as of 09Z. Strong shear associated with the mid-level jet
   should support storm organization, with both isolated hail and
   strong/gusty winds possible. The factors that may limit a greater
   severe risk in the short term include poor low-level lapse rates
   owing to a modest inversion, and weak instability with MLCAPE
   generally around 500-1000 J/kg. At this point, the expectation for
   fairly isolated storm coverage and the marginal thermodynamics
   suggest a watch will probably not be needed in the next couple of
   hours.

   ..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   42328042 42597954 42847896 43077905 43317907 43367891
               43417830 43177777 42567775 42017782 41657820 41497880
               41487989 41498120 41708138 42208124 42328042