Mesoscale Discussion 0791
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0456 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of IA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 030956Z - 031230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated large hail and strong/gusty wind threat may
   persist for the next couple of hours. Watch issuance is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have recently intensified along a weak front
   across parts of central/eastern IA. A weak surface low is present
   over central IA per recent mesoanalysis, with a feed of rich
   low-level moisture present along/south of the front. Steep mid-level
   lapse rates observed on the 00Z OAX sounding are still likely
   present over IA, which coupled with the low-level moisture are
   supporting generally 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE. This instability
   gradually weakens towards the IA/IL border. Enhanced mid-level flow
   remains mostly displaced to the north of ongoing convection. Still,
   recent VWPs from KDMX show around 25-30 kt of westerly flow at mid
   levels, which should be sufficient to maintain some updraft
   intensity and organization. Isolated instances of large hail should
   be the main threat for the next couple of hours, with a few recent
   1-1.5 inch MESH cores from MRMS. Occasional strong/gusty downdraft
   winds also cannot be ruled out given the amount of instability
   present. Current expectations are for the hail threat to remain
   rather isolated in the short term, with watch issuance unlikely.

   ..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...

   LAT...LON   41029229 40819360 40799482 40899487 41209486 41729403
               42169264 42429095 42379055 42169038 42029034 41649075
               41309146 41029229