Mesoscale Discussion 0793
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0952 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

   Areas affected...West-Central IL...Far Northeast MO...Extreme
   Southeast IA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 031452Z - 031645Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail and a few stronger wind gusts are possible
   over the next hour or two. More widespread severe potential is
   expected with the re-intensifying storms later this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Loosely organized convective line continues to progress
   southward/southeastward across extreme southeast IA and adjacent
   portions of west-central IL. This line is a remnant from overnight
   storms and appears to be supported by ascent along the far southern
   edge of a shortwave trough moving through the Upper Great Lakes.
   Overall trend over the past several hours is for the storms along
   the southwestern flank of the line to be favored. In this area,
   large-scale lift has been persistently augmented by low-level warm
   advection. This trend is generally expected to continue, although an
   overall weakening of the entire line is possible for a period of
   time while the low-level warm advection decreases and surface-based
   convective inhibition remains. A re-strengthening is then
   anticipated later this afternoon, particularly along western edge of
   the line over northwest MO and adjacent far west-central IL, as the
   downstream air mass destabilizes amidst strong diurnal heating.

   Primary severe threat is currently isolated hail, with some isolated
   damaging wind gusts possible. More widespread severe potential is
   expected with the re-intensifying storms later this afternoon.

   ..Mosier/Grams.. 06/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   40879210 41129110 41229010 41118916 40498907 39898988
               39869222 40299263 40879210