Mesoscale Discussion 0795
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0135 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

   Areas affected...Western to southern South Dakota and northern
   Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 031835Z - 032000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is likely within the next hour
   across western Wyoming. Storms will be capable of producing severe
   hail and wind gusts. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar and visible satellite trends show that an
   increasing number of deeper updrafts have developed along a surface
   trough associated with a surface low across southern Saskatchewan.
   RAP mesoanalyses show MLCIN decreasing while MLCAPE has increased to
   1000-1500 J/kg. These environmental and satellite/radar trends
   suggest the environment is becoming more favorable for sustained
   convection and initiation is likely within the next hour.
   Thunderstorm development is also possible along an outflow boundary
   from earlier convection north of the SD/NE border. Stronger flow
   aloft associated with a passing mid to upper-level perturbation is
   allowing for 40-50 knots of effective bulk shear across the region.
   This favorable shear within a nearly straight hodograph above 2 km
   will aid in storm organization, promote a discrete to semi-discrete
   storm mode along the trough axis, and support a severe hail threat.
   Although strong winds will be possible with any storm, the higher
   wind threat will be across southern SD/northern NE where deeper
   boundary layer mixing and steeper low-level lapse rates will aid in
   downward momentum transfer. Given fairly high confidence in storm
   development and a favorable environment, a watch is likely.

   ..Moore/Grams.. 06/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

   LAT...LON   42820289 43040392 43510409 44700421 45880387 45890258
               45660217 44720141 44059985 43709902 43109895 42729921
               42740020 42730163 42820289