Mesoscale Discussion 0796
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0145 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

   Areas affected...Northern MO...Central/Southern IL...Far Southwest
   IN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 031845Z - 032045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected over the next
   few hours. Some hail and damaging wind gusts are possible with the
   strongest storms.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places an outflow
   boundary/modified cold front from northern MO eastward across
   central IL and central IN. Air mass destabilization is ongoing along
   and south of this boundary, with mesoanalysis indicating little to
   no convective inhibition remaining. Visible satellite reveals
   several areas of deepening cumulus along the boundary, including
   over north-central MO, near the far northern MO/IL border
   intersection, and over central/eastern IL. This areas correspond
   well to areas of enhanced low-level moisture convergence. 

   Expectation is for convergence along this boundary to result in
   scattered convective initiation. Relatively weak wind fields are in
   place, limiting vertical shear. However, strong buoyancy will still
   contribute to robust updrafts capable of hail and damaging,
   water-loaded downbursts. Some potential exists for cold pool
   amalgamation and the development of one or more bowing line
   segments.

   ..Mosier/Grams.. 06/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39969476 40149368 40229205 40079073 39999021 39908965
               39818902 39738782 39588717 39358696 39008682 38538695
               38128736 38028877 38329126 38539299 38849457 39479494
               39969476