Mesoscale Discussion 0797
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0205 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

   Areas affected...East/northeast Colorado...northwest Kansas...and
   southwest Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 031905Z - 032030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is probable across eastern to
   northeastern Colorado in the next 1-2 hours. Storms that develop
   will pose the risk for strong downburst winds as well as severe
   hail. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery reveals a deepening cluster
   of agitated cumulus on the eastern extent of the Palmer Divide in
   east-central CO. Additionally, a fine cumulus line is noted
   extending to the northeast of this cloud cluster, and is indicative
   of a weakly convergent surface trough draped to the north. Although
   MLCAPE across this region is reaching into the 500-1000 J/kg range,
   RAP mesoanalysis and forecast soundings suggest lingering inhibition
   remains in place. With the synoptic upper-level wave and attendant
   surface low displaced to the north across the Dakotas and southern
   Canada, forcing for ascent should remain somewhat weak across this
   region. Despite this limitation, continued daytime heating will aid
   in mitigating the remaining inhibition through the late afternoon
   hours. While the development of one or two storms is probable across
   eastern CO, confidence is lower on the number/coverage of storms to
   the northeast.

   Storms that do develop will enter into an environment with
   sufficient instability and increasing deep layer shear to the
   north/northeast. This will favor a severe hail threat - especially
   across northeast CO, northwest KS, and southwest NE. Additionally,
   steep 7-9 C/km low-level lapse rates and a dry sub-cloud layer
   between 1-2 km AGL will support the potential for severe downburst
   winds. A watch is possible if sufficient coverage of storms can
   become established.

   ..Moore/Grams.. 06/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39850374 40760253 40950135 40730023 39530023 38620063
               38410220 38450323 38660403 39330404 39850374