Mesoscale Discussion 0798
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0210 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast OH...North/Northeast WV...Much of PA and
   MD...Far Northern VA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 031910Z - 032115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and hail are possible from
   southeast OH eastward across much of PA and MD as scattered
   thunderstorms develop this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis reveals a somewhat
   diffuse/outflow-modified cold front extending from south-central NY
   southwestward across northwest PA and westward through central OH.
   Temperatures along and south of the front are currently in the upper
   70s/low 80s with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Filtered diurnal
   heating has kept temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80s, which is
   combining with relatively warm temperatures aloft to limit stronger
   instability. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE from 500 to 1000
   J/kg. Some stronger northwesterly flow aloft still exists across the
   region, as sampled by 18Z PIT sounding. As a result, some stronger
   multicells/bowing line segments are possible, which could pose a
   risk for damaging wind gusts and hail.

   Farther southeast, an outflow boundary from an earlier MCS extends
   across northwest WV and much of MD. Deepening cumulus has been noted
   along this boundary, although the air mass has not destabilized like
   areas north/northwest. Strong heating is also mixing out more of the
   low-level moisture. Even so, a few isolated storms may develop along
   this boundary. Any storm that does persist will result in an
   isolated threat for damaging wind gusts.

   ..Mosier/Grams.. 06/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   40608070 39968214 39148196 39388077 39327977 38597845
               38867642 41067588 41667694 41577851 40608070