Mesoscale Discussion 0802
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0558 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

   Areas affected...eastern PA...northern NJ...and southern NY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 032258Z - 040030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An organized cluster of thunderstorms across eastern PA is
   likely to pose at least a marginal threat for strong winds this
   evening. Limited buoyancy in the wake of previous convection will
   likely support only limited coverage of storms, and a watch is not
   anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms over eastern PA has
   increased in convective intensity over the last hour. These storms
   are ongoing ahead of a shortwave trough over Quebec and the eastern
   US. Warm surface temperatures in the upper 70s and and low 80s with
   dewpoints in the mid 60s F ahead of these storms are supporting
   MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. A 50-60 kt mid-level jet ahead of the
   shortwave trough is supportive of favorable deep-layer shear
   profiles with 40-50 kt of effective shear. The combination of
   instability and shear should support continued organization of the
   ongoing storm cluster for a few more hours across portions of New
   York and New Jersey. Damaging winds will be the primary threat given
   the linear nature of the ongoing storms and extended but straight
   line hodographs. Limited spatial coverage and the lack of greater
   instability due to previous convection will likely limit the threat.
   No watch is planned at this time.

   ..Lyons/Hart.. 06/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

   LAT...LON   39977391 39967428 40417495 41347604 41817634 41967612
               42067555 41967481 41457381 41087327 40887298 40757287
               40497316 40277339 39977391