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Mesoscale Discussion 0810
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1011 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020
Areas affected...Southern IN...Southwest into Central OH...
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 041511Z - 041715Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind gust or two is possible across
middle OH Valley for the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis and visible satellite imagery
reveals a complex environment in place across the middle OH Valley
in the wake of a now decayed mesoscale convective system. Visible
satellite imagery shows a mesoscale convective vortex about 15 miles
northeast of BMG while surface observations and satellite imagery
depict a remnant outflow boundary from about 10 miles north of EVV
northeastward into central OH (about 15 miles south of MFD). Both of
these features have already promoted new thunderstorm development.
Currently, the overall environment is only modestly buoyant, with
daytime heating needed to steepen low-level lapse rates and boast
instability. Current expectation is for these loosely organized
multicells/line segments to remain predominantly sub-severe with a
relatively low potential for an isolated damaging wind gust or two.
These features and the ongoing storms will likely both contribute to
higher severe thunderstorm potential later this afternoon as the air
mass destabilizes.
..Mosier/Grams.. 06/04/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...
LAT...LON 39158701 40128533 40668299 40218175 39168213 38288476
37518745 38208791 39158701
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