Mesoscale Discussion 0812
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1232 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020

   Areas affected...Southern Arkansas and the Arklatex region

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 041732Z - 041830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...The outflow boundary and remnants of an overnight MCS will
   continue to move southward into southern Arkansas the Arklatex
   region. Periodic intensification along the line/outflow boundary is
   possible and will pose brief windows for marginally severe hail and
   possibly strong wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary and remnants of the MCS that moved
   through southern MO and northwest AR continue to propagate southward
   towards southern AR the greater Arklatex region. Recent radar trends
   from KSRX show the linear cluster of storms in western AR is not
   well organized - likely due to decreasing deep layer shear with
   southward extent - but still exhibits occasional deep updraft cores.
   As these storms, and the associated outflow boundary, continue south
   they will encounter a moderately unstable air mass with MLCAPE
   between 2000-2500 J/kg with decreasing inhibition. The expectation
   is for this line of storms to continue to show periodic updraft
   intensification along the line and potentially new storm development
   along the outflow boundary. Each intensification will introduce a
   brief window for marginally severe hail and strong gusty winds.
   Given the marginal nature of the threat, a watch is not likely.

   ..Moore/Grams.. 06/04/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

   LAT...LON   34819512 34699426 34359260 33869206 33129213 32769312
               32729403 33149523 33939557 34819512