Mesoscale Discussion 0813
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1259 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020

   Areas affected...Central Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 041759Z - 041900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is probable
   through the mid afternoon, but most storms should remain below
   severe limits. A watch is not likely.

   DISCUSSION...Agitated cumulus and a few weak thunderstorms have
   developed along and north of a stationary boundary draped east-west
   across Iowa. As daytime heating and decreasing inhibition continue,
   additional thunderstorms are probable. Given 500-1000 J/kg, with
   pockets up to 1500 J/kg, of MLCAPE, a strong storm or two is
   possible and may occasionally be capable of marginally severe hail.
   However, deep layer shear is currently weak and is not expected to
   increase above 25 knots until the late afternoon/evening hours.
   Given the low probability for severe hail and wind in this area, a
   watch is not likely for this round of developing convection.

   ..Moore/Grams.. 06/04/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   42199548 42779522 42809434 42689227 42499090 42119060
               41699050 41369118 41349258 41499428 41789538 42199548