Mesoscale Discussion 0816
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0151 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020

   Areas affected...The Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and western
   Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 041851Z - 041945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will begin moving into the
   Panhandles region in the coming hours and will pose a threat for
   severe hail and wind by the late afternoon/early evening hours. A
   severe thunderstorm watch is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar and visible satellite trends show
   increasing cumulus and weak thunderstorms developing off the higher
   terrain of northeast NM and southeast CO, as well as across far
   northeast NM and into the TX panhandle where surface pressure falls
   have been noted along a lee trough axis in recent RAP mesoanalyses.
   Recent hi-res guidance suggests this activity will propagate
   eastward into the TX/OK Panhandles region by the mid to late
   afternoon hours, and the recent cumulus development suggest isolated
   thunderstorm development within the western TX Panhandle is possible
   as well. Although 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE is already in place,
   mixed-layer inhibition and relatively weak deep-layer shear will
   hinder storm intensification in the near-term. However, clear skies
   will continue to allow daytime heating through the afternoon as
   temperatures climb towards the mid-upper 90s. This will aid in
   reducing MLCIN by mid/late afternoon. Additionally, a gradual
   increase in effective bulk shear is expected through the afternoon
   and evening hours. This suggests that convection should become
   increasingly organized and pose a greater potential for severe hail
   and wind after the 20-21 UTC time frame. Deep boundary-layer mixing
   up to nearly 3 km should be in place across the region by mid
   afternoon and will aid in the potential for strong downburst winds
   as well as additional storm development along outflow boundaries.

   ..Moore/Grams.. 06/04/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35140251 36140239 36590180 36620099 36559961 36259894
               35499864 34539872 34119947 33960084 34190214 34560250
               35140251