Mesoscale Discussion 0824
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0610 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020

   Areas affected...Texas South Plains

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 251...

   Valid 042310Z - 050115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 251
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A cluster of storms is moving southeast across the Texas
   South Plains with damaging winds and large hail as the primary
   severe threats. Storms are likely to continue moving southeast into
   the evening, and a local watch extension may be necessary.

   DISCUSSION...Storms with a history of damaging winds and radar
   signatures indicative of large hail are moving southeast across the
   Texas South Plains northeast of Lubbock. Weaker storms are
   developing upstream of the two supercells across Hale, Floyd, and
   Motley counties along outflow and near a surface pressure
   trough/dryline. Given the relatively straight, long hodographs and
   northwest flow, storm splitting will likely to continue. However,
   supercellular structure will likely continue with 35-45 knots of
   effective bulk shear. 

   Given the downstream environment, storms are likely to continue,
   although after sunset, storms are likely to weaken. The low level
   jet will likely strengthen across the southern High Plains, which
   could sustain convection tonight. However, the more likely scenario
   is for storms to continue through sunset and move out of the current
   watch. A local extension is likely, and a new downstream watch may
   be necessary depending on how storms evolve over the next few hours.

   ..Nauslar/Goss.. 06/04/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...

   LAT...LON   33710177 34180205 34530212 34520134 34510048 34469995
               33839945 33419965 33200001 33200085 33300145 33710177