Mesoscale Discussion 0827
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0758 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020

   Areas affected...portions of northwest Texas and Big Country

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 050058Z - 050230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm match may be issued downstream of
   WW251 and WW253 across portions of the northwest Texas and Texas Big
   Country. Damaging winds and large hail would be the primary threats.

   DISCUSSION...Storms are continuing to move south-southeast across
   the Texas South Plains and northwest Texas this evening with a
   history of large hail and damaging winds. While ample buoyancy
   (MLCAPE of 1000-2500 J/kg) and shear (30-40 knots) remains across
   the region and downstream, storms will begin to weaken as daytime
   heating wanes. With the loss of heating, updrafts will begin to
   weaken and storms may struggle to transition to being elevated.
   However, storms, especially supercells, may likely persist for
   another 1-2 hours and spread outside WW 251 and WW 253. While the
   downstream area for a possible new watch will be relatively small
   and narrow, there is potential for large hail and damaging winds.

   ..Nauslar/Goss.. 06/05/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   33229852 33509872 33559923 33420083 33080147 32910165
               32510169 32490119 32490060 32499989 32559933 32739891
               32969852 33229852