Mesoscale Discussion 0828
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0850 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020

   Areas affected...southwest Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 050150Z - 050315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A cluster of storms are developing in southwest Kansas
   capable of damaging winds and large hail. A watch issuance is
   possible, but the longevity and coverage of storms are uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...Storms developed and intensified in southwest Kansas as
   an outflow boundary pushed northward. The 00z DDC sounding sampled
   500+ J/kg of MLCAPE and 25-30 knots of effective bulk shear.
   However, mesoanalysis depicts slightly more instability and shear
   and the storm structure appears to support slightly higher
   instability. These storms are likely to drift south-southeast this
   evening with large hail and damaging winds possible. How long these
   storms will last and how far south/east they move are uncertain
   given the presence of northwest flow and with the low level jet
   likely strengthening in the vicinity tonight. The situation will be
   monitored over the next 1-2 hours for a possible watch issuance.

   ..Nauslar/Goss.. 06/05/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   37019997 36910046 36890084 36910129 36990157 37510171
               37720140 37770086 38040039 38020012 37739995 37499987
               37289986 37019997