Mesoscale Discussion 0836
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0331 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020

   Areas affected...portions of central into southwest MO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 050831Z - 051000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorms watch will be issued across parts
   of southwest into central MO. Locally damaging gusts and hail are
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...An organized line of storms continues to produce severe
   gusts and occasional hail across parts of northwest MO and eastern
   KS within WW 255. These storms are moving toward the southeast at
   around 35 kt. Most recently, a severe gust to 51 kt was measured at
   in Shawnee County, KS and 56 kt measured at St. Joseph, MO. Earlier
   signs of outflow surging ahead of the southern portions of the
   bowing MCS continue across parts of KS, however, redevelopment and
   intensification of additional cells near the outflow has been noted
   recently as storms approach the KS/MO state line near Kansas City.
   Additionally, cloud tops continue to cool in IR satellite loops,
   suggesting the MCS may still undergo additional strengthening.

   The downstream environment remains supportive of strong gusts with
   MLCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg common. While some inhibition
   exists, forecast soundings and 00z RAOB from SGF show favorable
   thermodynamic profiles for intense downdrafts. Regional VWP data
   also continues to show a rear-inflow jet of 50+ kts associated with
   the bowing MCS.

   ..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/05/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   37019323 36979408 37449476 37949488 38149477 38469417
               38859337 39079272 39139215 38779172 37779179 37619191
               37319217 37019323