Mesoscale Discussion 0838
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0759 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020

   Areas affected...far southeast IA...extreme northeast MO and far
   west-central IL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 051259Z - 051430Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A brief period of gusty winds or near-1 inch hail may
   accompany storms approaching west-central IL this morning. These
   storms are expected to weaken soon, and a watch is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...A few storms have intensified this morning as they
   approach the Mississippi River. Morning regional RAOBs show
   weakening instability between DVN and ILX. Nevertheless, midlevel
   lapse rates are still very steep in the presence of a modest low
   level jet. This is likely aiding in the uptick in intensity and some
   briefly gusty winds and hail are possible over the next hour or so.
   However, these storms will quickly outrun the corridor of weak
   MLCAPE in which they are currently traversing. As such, a weakening
   trend is expected to commence shortly.

   ..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/05/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   40289203 41119173 41169138 41109096 40899057 40399062
               39809068 39529100 39509132 39509165 39579185 39719195
               40289203