Mesoscale Discussion 0840
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1038 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020

   Areas affected...Central/Eastern AR...Far Southeast MO/MO
   Bootheel...Far Western TN...Far Northwest MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 051538Z - 051745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage expected over the next
   few hours. Overall environment is favorable for strong to severe
   storms capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated hail.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis and visible satellite imagery show and
   outflow boundary from the decaying MCS arcing from southeast MO
   (where storms are still ongoing) southwestward into far northern AR
   back westward across north-central AR, and then northwestward to the
   AR/MO/OK border intersection. Surface heating and ample low-level
   moisture has already eroded much of the convective inhibition across
   eastern AR and adjacent portions of western TN and far northwest MS.
   Continued heating will likely result in similar destabilization
   farther into central AR soon. Bore-like feature ahead of the outflow
   has recently resulted in deepening altocumulus  across central AR,
   evidence of mid-level moisture and instability.

   Expectation is for storms to gradually develop along this boundary,
   likely from east to west, over the next few hours. Strong buoyancy
   is anticipated, but vertical shear will be weak. This limited shear
   coupled with steep low-level lapse rates and ample mid-level
   moisture will contribute to an environment favorable for
   outflow-dominant storms capable of damaging wind gusts.

   ..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/05/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   34819386 35939310 36219136 36688997 36118927 34668923
               33959082 33609313 34819386