Mesoscale Discussion 0841
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1215 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020

   Areas affected...Southern MD...DC...Central VA...North-Central

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 051715Z - 051915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Increasing storm coverage is expected over the next few
   hours. A few stronger storms are possible, with an attendant risk
   for damaging wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Convectively enhanced shortwave trough continues to
   move eastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Downstream air mass from
   north-central NC northward through central VA continues to
   destabilize amid ample low-level moisture and daytime heating.
   Mesoanalysis indicates much of the convective inhibition within this
   corridor has already eroded. This is supported by the increase in
   deepening cumulus over the past half hour. Expectation is for the
   deeper convective cores over the higher terrain to gradually move
   eastward just ahead of the shortwave into the more buoyant air mass
   over the Piedmont. 

   Given the weak lapse rates, instability is expected to remain
   modest. Vertical shear will also be minimal since the stronger
   westerly flow aloft is displaced north of region. Even so, a few
   stronger, more persistent updrafts are possible, with the resulting
   water-loading and steep low-level lapse rates contributing to a risk
   for isolated damaging downbursts.

   ..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/05/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   38467905 38967840 39317756 38707643 36997775 36177924
               36488074 37487999 38467905