Mesoscale Discussion 0842
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1226 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020

   Areas affected...portions of the Great Lakes

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 051726Z - 051900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple of severe storms capable of severe wind and
   occasional large hail will be possible across the Great Lakes this
   afternoon and evening. Limited coverage suggests a watch is not
   necessary.

   DISCUSSION...17z Surface analysis shows a diffuse frontal zone
   across portions of Iowa into southern Wisconsin. To the south, a
   remnant MCV was noted across eastern Iowa and western Illinois.
   Visible satellite data shows cumulus is beginning to deepen along
   the front to the north of the MCV. Warm and moist surface conditions
   are supporting MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg across the region as
   indicated by SPC mesoanalysis. Continued heating and the approach of
   a shortwave trough will likely continue to support moderate
   destabilization this afternoon. Deep-layer shear is expected to
   remain somewhat displaced to the north, behind the frontal boundary,
   but 25-30 kts of effective shear may support organized updrafts in
   the form of small clusters or bowing segments. High DCAPE, greater
   than 1000 J/kg, will likely support a threat of damaging wind gusts
   with the stronger clusters of storms this afternoon and evening.
   some occasional large hail will also be possible, though the threat
   seems limited given the propensity for competing updrafts in the
   relatively weak shear environment. A couple of severe storms are
   likely to develop through the afternoon hours, but limited coverage
   likely precludes the need for a watch.

   ..Lyons/Thompson.. 06/05/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   41318743 41228906 41358988 41569044 42139076 42739018
               42998935 43078865 42998598 42368531 41808521 41398602
               41348709 41318743