Mesoscale Discussion 0844
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0207 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020

   Areas affected...East-Central/Southeast AR...Central MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 051907Z - 052030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Ongoing convective line is expected to persist southward
   into an environment supportive of a continued threat for damaging
   wind gusts across southeast AR and central MS.

   DISCUSSION...Based on current estimates, storm motion of the ongoing
   convective line is south-southeastward at 40-45 kt. At this speed,
   the line will reach the edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258 around
   2030Z. The downstream air mass across central MS and adjacent
   portions of east-central/southeast AR is characterized by
   temperatures in the low 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s. Mid-level
   lapse rates are not particularly steep but these warm and moist
   conditions still support strong buoyancy. Recent mesoanalysis
   estimates MLCAPE is over 2500 J/kg for this entire area.
   Boundary-layer mixing is modest, so this instability is expected to
   remain in place for the next several hours. 

   Overall, this downstream environment will support a continued threat
   for damaging wind gusts as the line moves through. Convective line
   has shown a more southerly trend over the past hour or so, favoring
   the stronger instability along its western flank. As a result, the
   highest potential for damaging wind gusts exists from southeast AR
   through central MS.

   ..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/05/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   33119195 34359176 33858991 33848851 33598802 32368849
               32359094 33119195