Mesoscale Discussion 0845
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0246 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020

   Areas affected...Northeast Oregon Northern/Central Idaho and
   southwest Montana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 051946Z - 052145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...High based storm development is probable in the next 1 to
   2 hours. These storms may pose a risk for damaging wind gusts
   through this evening. Storm coverage will remain isolated and a
   watch is not likely.

   DISCUSSION...Mid-level diffluence ahead of an approaching shortwave
   trough is beginning to overspread much of the Pacific northwest and
   Northern Rockies. Clearing along and ahead of a 50 kt mid-level jet
   is allowing strong solar heating along the western rim of the Oregon
   High Desert into the higher terrain of north central Idaho. Here,
   deepening cumulus has become increasingly agitated over the last
   hour. High based storm development appears probable over the next
   few hours. 40-50 kt of shear should support some organized storm
   clusters, and perhaps a supercell, capable of damaging winds and
   occasional large hail. Deep well-mixed boundary layers to around 600
   mb suggest the primary threat will be strong downdrafts with the
   potential for dry microbursts. Thus, a few damaging wind gusts are
   possible as convection develops this afternoon. Mean flow will
   transport storms to the northeast through the afternoon and evening
   hours into southwestern Montana. Storm coverage is expected to
   remain relatively sparse, and the limited severe threat suggests
   that a watch is not needed.

   ..Lyons/Thompson.. 06/05/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...

   LAT...LON   43221769 43071864 43131921 43321944 43521953 44611887
               46161692 46691505 46731362 46611339 46351305 45821245
               45191256 44491316 44451417 43641707 43221769