Mesoscale Discussion 0849
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0801 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020

   Areas affected...portions of central and eastern UT into western CO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 061301Z - 061530Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the next 2-3
   hours over south-central UT and quickly become severe. Severe gusts
   will then move across eastern UT/western CO through early afternoon.
   A watch will likely be needed by mid-morning.

   DISCUSSION...Bands of showers and thunderstorms across parts of
   central and eastern UT and western CO will continue to lift
   north/northeast over the next several hours. Gusty winds may occur
   with this initial activity before more intense storms develop over
   south-central UT around 15z. 

   As the upper trough over AZ continues to pivot north/northeast
   midlevel cooling will result in steepening lapse rates atop modest
   boundary-layer moisture. As of 12z, surface dewpoints across eastern
   UT into western CO were generally in the low to mid 50s. This will
   foster MLCAPE values as high as 1000 J/kg by mid-to-late morning.
   Intense deep-layer south/southwesterly flow is already in place
   across the region, and effective shear greater than 50 kt will
   spread northeast across the central Rockies vicinity. Organized,
   semi-discrete supercells are possible initially, but a quick
   transition into bowing segments is expected as storms will have a
   propensity for strong downdrafts. Given adequate instability and
   intense flow, severe gusts greater than 75 mph will be possible from
   mid-to-late morning into early afternoon as storms race
   northeastward across the discussion area. While damaging gusts will
   be the main concern, some hail and perhaps a tornado can not be
   ruled out given long hodographs and supercell wind profiles.

   ..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/06/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...FGZ...SLC...

   LAT...LON   37091011 37481113 37991166 39241185 39961187 40761090
               41000968 40910841 40460761 40060754 38220777 37720796
               37140863 36990944 37091011