Mesoscale Discussion 0851
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1104 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020

   Areas affected...Central/Southern FL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 061604Z - 061700Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A few deeper cells with a transient and brief threat for
   tornadoes are possible across central/southern FL for the next
   several hours.

   DISCUSSION...Enhanced low to mid-level flow around the far
   northeastern periphery of TS Cristobal is currently glancing the
   west-central/southwest coast of FL. Recent TBW VAD data sampled a
   strong and veering wind profile with over 180 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH.
   This enhanced wind field overlies very moist surface conditions
   which are in place across all of the central and southern FL
   Peninsula. Current surface observations reveal temperatures in the
   upper 70s/low 80s and dewpoints in the upper 70s. These very moist
   and moderately warm conditions are helping foster moderate buoyancy,
   with mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg across the area.
   Even with this favorable buoyancy and shear, the warm profiles will
   still limit updraft depth and overall storm persistence.

   General expectation is for updrafts to occasionally/briefly become
   strong/deep enough to produce lightning. These deeper, more
   persistent updrafts could also briefly become organized enough for
   quick tornadogenesis. This scenario is more likely in areas where
   clearing allows for modest heating and steep low-level lapse rates.
   Some clearing has been noted along a line from roughly VNC
   southeastward to just south of MIA. Convective trends will be
   monitored closely over the region.

   ..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/06/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   27938275 27788104 27208021 25848021 25218094 26538219
               27938275