Mesoscale Discussion 0857
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0507 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020

   Areas affected...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 062207Z - 070000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A broken line of storms has developed across West Virginia
   and southern Ohio. These storms may be capable of large hail and
   damaging winds. Given the relative marginal nature of the severe
   threat, a watch issuance is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...An upper-level shortwave trough is moving over
   southeast Canada with an associated surface cold front extending
   from New England back through the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley.
   Storms have developed just south of the cold front across West
   Virginia and far southern Ohio. The mid-level flow is relatively
   parallel to the frontal boundary, but there is southward component
   to the storm motions. Per water vapor imagery and mesoanalysis there
   appears to be a vort max or low-amplitude shortwave moving over the
   area locally enhancing flow, forcing for ascent, and shear. With
   temperatures warming into the 80s F and low 90s F and dewpoints in
   the 60s F to low 70s F south of the front, MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg
   has developed. Marginally severe hail and wind are possible with
   these storms, and they are likely to continue to around sunset
   before beginning to weaken. Re-development behind this initial line
   is possible, and a storm or two may develop back across southwest
   Ohio/northeast Kentucky as well.

   ..Nauslar/Goss.. 06/06/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...ILN...

   LAT...LON   37398108 37528158 38258307 38518331 38718345 38818322
               38998238 39108039 39197886 39037790 38507731 38087731
               37687759 37377817 37287898 37337962 37338063 37398108