Mesoscale Discussion 0866
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0612 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020

   Areas affected...coastal portions of AL and the FL Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 071112Z - 071315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A waterspout or two may approach the coast this morning.
   However, the tornado threat will quickly diminish away from the
   immediate coast.

   DISCUSSION...Low-topped convection has at times shown moderate
   mid-to-low level rotation this morning as the outer bands associated
   with Tropical Cyclone Cristobal move onshore the northern Gulf
   Coast. Surface winds are generally from the east or northeast along
   the coast, resulting in enhanced storm-relative helicity and
   enlarged 0-3 km hodographs. A very moist environment is in place
   along the coast, with dewpoints generally in the low 70s. However,
   weak inhibition exists over land, with greater SBCAPE values
   confined to the offshore waters. Overall, convection has tended to
   weaken as it moves inland, but given strong low level shear, a
   waterspout briefly moving onshore cannot be entirely ruled out this
   morning. 

   Conditions may become more favorable for a couple of
   waterspouts/tornadoes by early afternoon as surface winds become
   more southeasterly and heating results in increasing instability.
   However, the short-term threat appears too low to warrant a tornado
   watch.

   ..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/07/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30348410 30088393 29648394 29278427 29048494 29008663
               29148785 29648867 30058881 30338872 30578848 30778795
               30878676 30748540 30598462 30348410