Mesoscale Discussion 0869
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0200 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern ND...Far Northwest MN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 071900Z - 072115Z

   CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT STATE IN AREAS AFFECTED

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop rapidly across
   eastern ND and northwestern MN this afternoon. The environment
   supports all severe hazards, including tornadoes and very large
   hail.

   DISCUSSION...Air mass over eastern ND has quickly destabilized amid
   strong diurnal heating and ample low-level moisture. Recent
   mesoanalysis estimates little to no convective inhibition remains
   with MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg. This destabilization is confirmed by
   the building cumulus field over the region. Wave clouds father east
   and northeast in far northwest MN suggest more stability remains in
   place over this area.

   Based on recent surface analysis, the warm front extends from about
   50 miles west-northwest from HCO southwestward through GAF and DTL
   (roughly along the 82 deg F isotherm). Given this placement, much of
   eastern ND is already south of the boundary. The warm front is
   expected to continued northward/northeast throughout the day, result
   in a warm, moist, and very unstable warm sector. Boundary-layer
   mixing may result in a veering of the surface winds and modest
   weakening of the low-level shear. Even so, the low-level flow should
   remain backed enough to support supercell wind profiles,
   particularly with northeastern extent (especially along warm front).

   Once convective initiation occurs, robust updrafts are expected to
   develop quickly. All severe hazards are possible, with the tornado
   and hail threat highest during the first few hours after
   development. Some questions exist regarding how long storms will
   stay discrete and cellular, but eventual transition into a more
   linear system is anticipated.

   ..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/07/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   48739799 48929729 48849618 47719594 46389602 45939669
               45969746 46049800 46429835 47849816 48739799