Mesoscale Discussion 0873
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0359 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020

   Areas affected...eastern Montana western North Dakota and far
   northwest South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 072059Z - 072300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A few thunderstorms capable of severe wind and hail will
   be possible this afternoon/evening. A watch maybe needed should
   convective intensity continue to increase.

   DISCUSSION...Upper-level ascent from an approaching embedded
   shortwave trough has recently started overspread portions of eastern
   Montana and the Dakotas. A few thunderstorms have formed up-stream
   across portions of south Central Montana and northern Wyoming.
   Additional ascent and heating will continue to destabilize the
   atmosphere ahead of the storms. Limited boundary-layer moisture will
   be the limiting factor, but sufficient heating and dewpoints in the
   mid 40s F should support 500-1000 MUCAPE. Strong shear profiles with
   50-60 kt of effective shear may support organized storms in the form
   of high-based supercells and line segments, with the primary threats
   being damaging wind gusts and some large hail. Models remain
   uncertain on the evolution and longevity of storms, but do suggest
   at least some threat for severe weather. Thus, a watch maybe needed
   should convective intensity continue to increase.

   ..Lyons/Thompson.. 06/07/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   46290250 45580313 45390364 45540669 45790712 45980721
               46810724 47200716 48610585 48840544 48940516 48960096
               48550097 48030122 46290250