Mesoscale Discussion 0880
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0109 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020

   Areas affected...northeast Mississippi into west central Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 081809Z - 082045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A brief/weak tornado or two will be possible with TD
   Cristobal as it slowly moves to the north and west. A weather watch
   is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...NHC guidance  indicates Cristobal has weakened to a
   Tropical Depression and is located at 32.5N 91.8W or 15 miles east
   of Monroe LA, moving northwest at 15 mph. Clearing on the east side
   of the core of the decaying cyclone has allowed temperatures to rise
   into the low 80s F. The increase in temperature and a very humid
   tropical airmass is supporting MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. The increase
   in buoyancy should allow storms to increase in coverage an intensity
   over the next 1 to 2 hours. The wind fields around Cristobal remains
   sufficiently strong to support rotating updrafts with 0-1 km SRH of
   200-300 m2/s2 as sampled by the Columbus AFB VAD. A few miniature
   supercells capable of a brief/weak tornado or strong wind gust will
   be possible through the next several hours. Coverage is expected to
   remain relatively low given the limited buoyancy, and modest, for TC
   standards, low-level shear. Convective trends will be monitored, but
   a watch seems unlikely.

   ..Lyons/Thompson.. 06/08/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   33548997 33959031 34339057 34489066 34679063 34849050
               34989012 35008904 34838840 34658809 34048810 33068829
               32608848 32498885 32608916 32808939 33148960 33548997