Mesoscale Discussion 0881
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0210 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern ND...Northwest MN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 081910Z - 082115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm development expected this afternoon.
   All severe hazards are possible, including a tornado or two and very
   large hail.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low centered over HCO
   with a cold front extending southwestward to another low about 50
   miles northeast of ABR and then back farther southwestward across
   eastern SD into central NE. Conditions ahead of this front in
   eastern ND and northwest MN are characterized by temperatures in the
   low to mid 80s and dewpoints around 70. Wave clouds are evidence of
   remaining stability over southeast ND while the more vertically
   developed clouds farther north/northeast suggest a destabilized air
   mass. Recent mesoanalysis verifies these suggestions, with
   convective inhibition remaining over southeast ND while little to no
   convective inhibition remains farther north/northeast. 

   Steep mid-level lapse rates (i.e. greater than 8 deg C per km) are
   in place atop this warm and moist air mass, resulting in strong
   instability. Expectation is for convective initiation along and
   ahead of the front, first across northeast ND and adjacent MN before
   then developing farther southward/southwestward. Enhanced mid-level
   southwesterly flow is contributing to strong vertical shear over the
   area, resulting in long hodographs typically supportive of
   supercells. Surface winds have already veered somewhat, which could
   limit the low-level shear needed for tornadogenesis. Even so,
   overall length of the low-level hodograph suggest some tornado
   potential still exists with the initially cellular mode. Very large
   hail (i.e. greater than 2" in diameter) is also possible with any
   more discrete cellular storm. A transition to more of a linear mode
   is expected as the front moves eastward over time.

   ..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/08/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   47939842 48979708 49039560 48159496 46339699 46529806
               47939842