Mesoscale Discussion 0889
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0203 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2020

   Areas affected...north-central KS...southeast NE

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 091903Z - 092030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Convective initiation is expected around 3pm CDT.  A
   couple of supercells with an attendant tornado/hail threat will
   likely develop later this afternoon.  A tornado watch will likely be
   needed by 230pm CDT.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus
   field over north-central KS and southern NE as surface temperatures
   rise into the mid to upper 80s.  Surface analysis places a boundary
   from 20 mi west of RSL to 40 mi northwest of CNK to 40 mi
   east-southeast of GRI.  KTWX VAD shows low-level veering flow in the
   lowest 1-2 km and RAP forecast soundings show sickle-shaped
   hodographs in the lowest 8km but some backing aloft.  Additionally,
   the deepening boundary layer evident in the RAP sounding data
   suggests CINH will largely erode during the next 1-2 hours.  

   Short-term guidance suggests a couple of storms will preferentially
   develop near the boundary during the mid-late afternoon with
   subsequent development farther southeast over northeast KS/far
   southeast NE towards early evening.  The tornado risk will probably
   focus in the vicinity of the boundary but on the immediate warm
   sector side where large CAPE is co-located with ample surface
   vorticity.  Large to very large hail will be possible with the more
   dominant/persistent updrafts.

   ..Smith/Thompson.. 06/09/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   39769836 40789779 40819699 39409662 38909711 39049796
               39199830 39769836