Mesoscale Discussion 0890
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0354 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2020

   Areas affected...southern Illinois western kentucky and
   south-central Indiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 092054Z - 092200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few surface based storms may develop across SW Illinois
   this evening with a conditional threat for a brief weak tornado.
   There is considerable uncertainty on thunderstorm initiation and a
   watch is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite indicates clearing has occurred west
   of the cloud shield from the remnants of TD Cristobal. Surface
   heating is occurring here over a very moist tropical air mass with
   dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s F. Continued advection of warmer
   temperatures and low-level moisture will likely result in continued
   destabilization through late this afternoon and evening. MLCAPE has
   already begun to increase, with SPC mesoanalysis currently
   indicating 1500-2500 J/kg. Favorable low-level shear, 0-1 km SRH
   200-300 m2/s2, from the strong wind fields surrounding Cristobal
   will support updraft rotation with any surface based storms that may
   develop.

   There is considerable uncertainty on thunderstorm initiation across
   the area. The lack of any well defined surface boundaries suggests
   that any storm initiation will likely be due to local mesoscale
   convergence and or diurnal heating. A narrow window of opportunity
   for surface based convective development will exist before sunset.
   Should this occur, convective trends will be monitored, but a
   Tornado Watch seems unlikely at this time.

   ..Lyons/Thompson.. 06/09/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   38528558 37648711 37358797 37398879 38078914 38488902
               39668682 39748661 39698554 39268538 38898546 38528558