Mesoscale Discussion 0892
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0643 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast NE...Far Northeast KS...Far Southwest
   IA...Far Northwest MO

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 273...

   Valid 092343Z - 100115Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 273 continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for tornadoes continues across southeast NE and far
   northeast KS. convective trends will be monitored for additional
   storm development across far southwest IA and far northwest MO.

   DISCUSSION...A complex surface pattern persists across eastern NE
   southward into central and eastern KS. Recent surface analysis
   places a low about 20 miles west-southwest of CNK, with a dryline
   arcing eastward and then southeastward from the low to the central
   KS/MO border. Additionally, a cold front extends northeastward from
   the low through southeast NE into far western IA. Storms have been
   developing along these boundaries, but the quick northeastward
   progression of the dryline coupled with eastward movement of the
   cold front has led to undercutting and limited residence time in the
   warm-sector thus far. Several cells along the dryline have tried to
   organize, with several left splits noted, but the slower and
   slightly more eastward storm motion that results has been undercut
   thus far. Even so, strong vertical shear and robust buoyancy amid
   strong forcing for ascent will result in continual severe
   thunderstorm development and the potential for a tornado or two.

   Farther west, an evolving storm cluster is ongoing across Jefferson
   and Saline counties. This cluster has surged eastward with the cold
   front and a recent storm merger increased the storm intensity.
   Robust surface vorticity is in place near this storm, which likely
   contributed to recent tornadogenesis. Complex storm and boundary
   interactions are currently ongoing, but the threat for tornado
   should continue with this cluster for at least the next half hour or
   so. 

   The warm sector is expected to become increasingly narrow over time.
   However, some low potential for additional storms exists within
   areas downstream of the watch (i.e. far northwest MO and far
   southwest IA) and convective trends will be monitored.

   ..Mosier.. 06/09/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   40099758 40739709 41209611 40739426 39169451 39339647
               39619736 40099758