Mesoscale Discussion 0893
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0841 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2020

   Areas affected...portions of east Texas into Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 100141Z - 100315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are developing along a Pacific cold front as it
   pushes east-southeast across the region. Marginally severe hail and
   winds are possible, a watch issuance is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...After numerous attempts of convective initiation along
   the Pacific cold front extending southwestward from southern
   Missouri through south Texas, a few storms have matured in the past
   30-60 minutes. An increase of lightning activity and indications of
   marginally severe hail per radar/MESH data have recently occurred
   near the ArkLaTex. The stronger forcing for ascent is farther to the
   north across the Midwest, but daytime heating and enhanced surface
   convergence near the front has finally breached the cap. Given the
   influence of insolation and the lack of a stronger low-level jet
   supporting warm air advection aloft, these storms may be relatively
   short-lived, although a weak warm air advection signal is forecast
   across parts of Arkansas later into the evening. If a storm can
   establish itself, MLCAPE/MUCAPE of 2000+ J/kg may sustain storms
   past sunset.

   ..Nauslar/Hart.. 06/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   31109630 32389559 33559485 35549311 35449155 32779294
               30859445 30929568 31109630