Mesoscale Discussion 0894
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0921 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2020

   Areas affected...Southwest IA...Northwest/North-Central MO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 100221Z - 100345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging wind gusts will remain a threat
   with the ongoing storms for the next hour or two. Thereafter, the
   loss of buoyancy with northward extent should lead to gradual
   weakening.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low just south of OMA,
   along a cold front extending from south-central MN southwestward
   into central KS. A dryline arcs southeastward from this low into
   central MO and then back southward through southern MO. A warm
   front, delineated well by the 80 deg F isotherm, also extends
   east-southeastward from this low. The warm sector between this
   slow-moving warm front and the quickly northeastward progressing
   dryline has been narrowing throughout the evening. 

   Strong forcing for ascent near the surface low continues to support
   strong to severe thunderstorms. Large hail and damaging wind gusts
   will remain a threat with these storms for the next hour or two.
   Thereafter, the increasingly limited area of strong buoyancy is
   expected to result in a gradual weakening of the ongoing storms as
   they continue northeastward into southeast IA. Several attempts at
   more robust convection have occurred farther southeastward along the
   dryline, but have yet to maintain strength, likely as a result of
   warm temperatures aloft.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 06/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...

   LAT...LON   39239273 39349343 40469545 41019608 41519613 41649475
               40229247 39239273