Mesoscale Discussion 0898
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1239 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020

   Areas affected...south-central into northeast PA...parts of southern
   NY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 101739Z - 101945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Localized damaging gusts (50-60 mph) and transient
   low-level rotation are possible with the stronger storms this
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a towering cumulus
   field evolving into a cellular band of storms over central PA.  The
   airmass over central and eastern PA has destabilized with surface
   temperatures rising into the upper 80s with dewpoints in the lower
   70s.  Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level ridge moving east over
   the Gulf Stream with a mid-level trough over the middle MS Valley. 
   Modest southwesterly mid-level flow around 25 kt has been sampled by
   KCCX.

   Despite the lack of appreciable large-scale forcing for ascent due
   primarily to the displacement of the mid-level trough to the west,
   it appears storms are developing preferentially over the higher
   terrain in the eastern WV Panhandle north-northeast.  Forecast
   soundings show appreciable low-level hodographs with 25-30 kt
   effective shear.  The instability/shear will likely favor some storm
   organization in the form of strong to severe multicells and perhaps
   transient supercell structure with weak/intermittent low-level
   rotation with the strongest storm or two.  Damaging gusts (50-60
   mph), marginally severe hail, and perhaps a brief tornado are
   possible with the more intense thunderstorms.

   ..Smith/Thompson.. 06/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

   LAT...LON   39617817 39707909 41207809 42307602 42277494 41997447
               41637462 40727696 39617817