Mesoscale Discussion 0900
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0203 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020

   Areas affected...southeast lower Michigan

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 274...276...

   Valid 101903Z - 102030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 274, 276
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Numerous thunderstorms have coalesced into a loosely
   organized squall line across portions of northeast Indiana and
   southeast Lower Michigan. A focused corridor for damaging wind gusts
   may develop as storms intensify from Kalamazoo, east-northeast
   toward Detroit.

   DISCUSSION...A line of quasi discrete supercells have begun merging
   into a more linear organization across portions of northeast Indiana
   and southern half of Lower Michigan over the last hour. Several
   reports of wind damage have been received as outflow has become more
   coherent and better organized. The diagonal NE/SW orientation of the
   convective line lies along a corridor of backed mid and upper-level
   flow observed from the 18z Detroit special sounding. The orientation
   of the upper-level flow will likely support continued downdraft
   development and outflow aggregations given seeding from anvil
   precipitation being advected over downstream convection across
   portions of far northeast Indiana into southeast Lower Michigan. The
   main threat with storms will be damaging winds given 1200-1400 J/kg
   of DCAPE and strong mid-level flow of 50 to 60 kt. Large hail will
   be possible given MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg supporting robust deep
   updrafts. However, the risk appears limited due to weaker lapse
   rates of 6 to 7 C/km and the predominately linear storm mode. The
   most favored corridor for severe wind will be with the stronger
   cells merging into southern Michigan toward Detroit. A few
   significant wind gusts will be possible with any stronger bowing
   structures that can develop.

   ..Lyons/Thompson.. 06/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   42648519 43208407 43788343 43908295 43668264 42728254
               42418300 41768352 41818523 42048528 42548522 42648519