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Mesoscale Discussion 0901
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0402 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020
Areas affected...western Ohio
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 275...277...
Valid 102102Z - 102230Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 275, 277
continues.
SUMMARY...A cluster of stronger storms including intermittent
supercell structures will pose a threat for strong wind gusts and
isolated large hail across northwestern portions of WW277. Across
the rest of the watch, isolated severe weather remains possible.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to organize posing a threat for
severe winds and isolated large hail across WW277. These storms are
ongoing in a very warm and moist environment characterized by
surface temperatures and dewpoints in the upper 80s to near 90 and
low to mid-70s F respectively. Aloft, warmer temperatures have
limited lapse rates to around 6.5 to 7.5 C/km. While modest, the
lapse rates and high boundary-layer moisture are maintaining MLCAPE
of 1500-2000 J/kg. Wind profiles from the KILN VAD show mostly
unidirectional hodographs with limited shear above 6 km. The
combination of shear and buoyancy should continue to support
organized storms in the form of upscale growing clusters and
intermittent supercells. The main threat is expected to be damaging
winds given DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg. The moderate buoyancy may
support isolated large hail, but competing updrafts, and warm 500 mb
temps near -7 c should keep the threat secondary.
A cluster of storms across portions of Auglaize, Shelby, and Logan
counties will likely pose the most significant threat for damaging
winds over the next few hours. Storms are forecast to continue
growing upscale into a squall line through this evening with
continued potential for damaging winds downstream.
..Lyons/Thompson.. 06/10/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...
LAT...LON 41548413 40978446 39928474 39378476 38898404 39308313
39428290 40218234 40858191 41338190 41468251 41628334
41628378 41548413
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