Mesoscale Discussion 0902
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0523 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020

   Areas affected...eastern Tennessee...southeast Kentucky...western
   Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 102223Z - 110000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are developing just south/east of WW278 with a
   couple of weaker supercells in far western Virginia/vicinity. All
   severe threats are possible, but given the relatively isolated and
   marginal nature of the severe threat, a watch issuance is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Storms are developing ahead of a surface cold front and
   near a pre-frontal trough pushing through the Ohio and Tennessee
   Valleys towards the Appalachians. A few weaker supercells developed
   in far western Virginia/vicinity with some lower-end VROT values
   (15-20 knots) where surface winds have backed to the southeast. An
   isolated and relatively confined/marginal tornado threat exists in
   this area and immediately downstream. Marginally severe hail/wind
   are also possible with these storms. 

   Farther west, storms are beginning to develop ahead of the surface
   cold front near a pre-frontal trough in Middle/eastern Tennessee.
   These storms may become capable of marginally severe wind/hail with
   effective bulk shear of 30-35 knots and MLCAPE of 1000-1500+ J/kg.
   Storms are likely to continue moving eastward and may continue over
   the Appalachians or with new development along/east across western
   North Carolina/Virginia.

   ..Nauslar/Thompson.. 06/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...

   LAT...LON   36858188 36138244 35438351 35078420 34958519 35148527
               35958514 36568491 36938358 37258296 37518229 37378204
               37018197 36858188