Mesoscale Discussion 0903
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0535 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020
Areas affected...Central/eastern Ohio...northeastern
Kentucky....northwestern West Virginia...western
Pennsylvania...southwestern New York and Lake Erie
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 277...
Valid 102235Z - 110000Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 277
continues.
SUMMARY...An evolving squall line will overspread much of the
region, including much of the Greater Cleveland area by 8-9 PM EDT,
and perhaps Greater Pittsburgh by 9-11 PM EDT, accompanied by the
risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. A new severe weather
watch will probably be issued shortly.
DISCUSSION...A narrow broken pre-frontal squall line continues to
evolve, aided by inflow of seasonably moist boundary layer air
characterized by CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. The line appears
largely parallel to the 50-60 kt cyclonic, south-southwesterly
deep-layer ambient mean flow, but given the strength of the slow,
potential for severe gusts probably will continue in northeastward
surging segments into the 01-03Z time frame.
The line of storms appears to be in the process of continuing to
fill in along the leading edge of consolidating cold pools, which
appears to be propagating eastward at 30-35 kt. At this pace,
activity should overspread much of the remainder of eastern Ohio,
southern Lake Erie, portions of northwestern West Virginia, western
Ohio and southwestern New York by 01-03Z
..Kerr.. 06/10/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BUF...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...
LAT...LON 41618237 41878182 42617948 41647968 40118023 38578139
38198267 38498312 39478270 40588250 41618237
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