Mesoscale Discussion 0906
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0326 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020

   Areas affected...south central Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 112026Z - 112200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms across Wisconsin may pose a limited threat
   for a strong wind gust this afternoon and early evening. A weather
   watch is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms have recently developed across
   portions of Wisconsin, with a 47kt gust noted at 1953Z at GBR. These
   storms are located beneath a 50-60 kt 500 mb jet on the backside of
   a deep trough across the Great lakes and southern Canada. Here, cool
   500 mb temperatures of -18 to -20C overlay surface temperatures and
   dewpoints in the low to mid 70s and upper 40s to low 50s F,
   respectively. The cool temperatures aloft and the marginal surface
   moisture are supporting 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Weak bulk shear and
   buoyancy may support weakly-organized updrafts capable of a strong
   to localized severe (45-60 mph) gust for the next few hours.
   Coverage is expected to remain low given the limited low-level
   moisture. A watch is not anticipated.

   ..Lyons/Thompson.. 06/11/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   44619156 45189194 45529176 45779116 45298991 45028885
               44898845 44808793 44758753 44608730 44368719 43498732
               43048753 42858781 42768895 42948961 43219030 43609103
               44619156