Mesoscale Discussion 0907
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0537 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020

   Areas affected...North-central Oregon and eastern Washington

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 112237Z - 120030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms have developed in north-central
   Oregon. A few more storms may develop this afternoon with increased
   mid-level forcing approaching. Storms will be capable of marginally
   severe hail and isolated damaging wind. No WW is expected given the
   sparse storm coverage expected.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have developed along the eastern
   Cascades in Oregon with a stronger cell currently moving through
   Wheeler County. The stronger cell has shown signs of mid-level
   rotation on KPDT velocity data and appears capable of producing
   marginally severe hail.  Low-level moisture is higher than most
   guidance has predicted with dewpoints holding in the low 50s F. With
   mid-level ascent continuing to increase this afternoon and evening,
   a few more isolated thunderstorms may develop in the next few hours.
   MLCAPE values likely exceed those of the RAP-based objective
   mesoanalysis with 500-600 J/kg a reasonable estimate based on
   modified RAP soundings. Sufficient deep-layer shear (40-55 kts)
   should allow for sustained storms to become organized. Isolated
   marginally severe hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible with
   the more organized convection. Given limited storm coverage, a WW is
   not expected.

   ..Wendt/Kerr.. 06/11/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...PQR...

   LAT...LON   44342182 46242104 48221984 48901893 48741784 47881754
               46241829 44632010 43892117 43882156 43972172 44342182