Mesoscale Discussion 0909
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0700 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020

   Areas affected...Northeastern Oregon...southeastern
   Washington...portions of central Idaho

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 130000Z - 130200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated supercell or two are possible near the
   OR/WA/ID border vicinity. Isolated large hail and damaging wind
   gusts will be the primary threats. The northern extent of the threat
   is a bit uncertain with cloud cover remaining in place in
   northeastern WA and northern ID. A WW is not currently anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has become more intense across the higher
   terrain in northeastern Oregon over the past hour. A few
   thunderstorms have developed with visible satellite showing other
   attempts at storm initiation ongoing. Strong forcing for ascent is
   increasing across the area as a shortwave trough rotates through the
   Pacific Northwest this evening and overnight. The immediate
   downstream environment of these thunderstorms has remained mostly
   cloud free during the day. Temperatures have risen into the low 70s
   to upper 70s in a few locations. Dewpoints have held in the low to
   upper 50s F, generally a bit higher than yesterday. MLCAPE of 500
   J/kg and a few pockets nearing 1000 J/kg where greater surface
   heating has occurred are reasonable estimates for buoyancy based on
   objective mesoanalysis. Given 45-55 kts of effective bulk shear, a
   more organized storm or two will be possible. Isolated large hail
   and a damaging convective wind gust will be the primary hazards.
   Based on current surface observations, storms near the OR/WA/ID
   border intersection have a higher potential to become
   intense/organized. With time, storms will likely lift north into
   areas that have had greater cloud cover today. That being said, the
   northern extent of the threat is somewhat uncertain. At this time,
   the threat appears spatially limited enough that a WW is not likely.

   ..Wendt/Grams.. 06/13/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...

   LAT...LON   45151876 46011892 46911829 47341744 47461671 47151632
               46211614 45621622 45111687 44791768 44791838 44851862
               45151876