Mesoscale Discussion 0910
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0154 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020

   Areas affected...northern new Mexico...western/central
   Colorado...and southern Wyoming

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 131854Z - 132100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Convection continues to develop mainly near higher terrain
   in the discussion area.  Damaging wind gusts and large hail are
   possible with the strongest convection.

   DISCUSSION...Recent trends in observations indicate deepening
   convection with lightning across much of western/central Colorado
   and northwestern New Mexico currently.  These storms are developing
   in an environment characterized by moderate deep shear and
   seasonably strong kinematic fields, with 20-25 knots of peak
   boundary layer in Colorado, weakening with southward extent.  Steep
   tropospheric lapse rates are also fostering around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE
   while also favoring downbursts near the strongest convection.  KGUC
   observed thunderstorm wind gusts near 36 knots within the past hour
   as well.

   The main limiting factor for a more robust severe threat is modest
   forcing for ascent.  Weak/diffuse mid-level shortwaves are
   traversing the region currently, though most of the severe risk is
   expected to be isolated.  Models hint at low potential for upscale
   growth into loosely organized linear segments once storms exit the
   higher terrain later this afternoon.  The overall scenario seems to
   support an isolated severe threat that would preclude a WW issuance,
   although trends will continue to be monitored.

   ..Cook/Goss.. 06/13/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...RIW...GJT...FGZ...

   LAT...LON   34140897 35680915 38610903 40040881 40720841 41920728
               42150602 42260508 41690430 40010413 37900447 36390540
               35030651 34230761 33770825 34140897