Mesoscale Discussion 0911
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0321 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020

   Areas affected...western Montana and a small part of northern Idaho

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 132021Z - 132215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Convection is being maintained near the MT/ID border and
   should drift northward into western Montana this afternoon/evening. 
   A Ww issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Convection along the MT/ID border area near Idaho
   County, ID resides just ahead of a vigorous mid-level vorticity
   maximum.  Both the storms and the vort-max were moving northward
   toward a region that has experienced appreciable surface warming,
   allowing for SBCAPE to increase to around 1000J/kg amidst steep
   mid-level lapse rates.  Deep shear of around 45-55 kts should foster
   organization, with upscale growth into one or two linear segments
   expected over time.

   Given the fast flow aloft, storms should expand and migrate
   northward through the discussion area relatively quickly, with most
   of the severe threat confined to a 3-4 hour window over western MT -
   possibly ending by 00-01Z as the bulk of the convection shifts
   quickly northward into Canada.  Hail and damaging wind gusts are the
   primary threats with this activity.  It is currently unclear whether
   coverage and extent of the severe threat will necessitate a WW
   issuance.  Convective trends will be monitored.

   ..Cook/Goss.. 06/13/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...OTX...

   LAT...LON   49011508 49181415 49151230 48601152 47011171 46271257
               45751406 45711476 46251507 47231523 49011508